Sunday, February 06, 2005

 

I'll Never Be an NFL Scout

It's hard to evaluate the potential of a college athlete. A player can light the world on fire in college and not make it as a pro. Sometimes it's due to competition. Johnny Bailey of Texas A & I had a remarkable career at the Division II school. He was a good NFL player, a fine kick returner and third down back, but his career wasn't what you'd call stellar. On the other hand a running back from Div II Jacksonville State in the early '70's went on to be drafted second overall by the Chicago Bears. His name was Walter Payton, a player who did so many things well that I believe he's the greatest football player of all time.

I never got to watch Payton play in college. There never have been many Div II games on TV. The NFL draft class of 1983 had six quarterbacks taken in the first round. I had the opportunity to watch all of them play. The standout of that QB class coming out of college was John Elway of Stanford. Elway was big and strong, could move quite well and had a cannon for an arm. It was obvious he was going to be a star. He was.

If I were ranking those QB's, I would have put Tony Eason of Illinois second. Eason didn't have the arm strength of Elway (few have or ever will) but he threw an accurate pass. Alas, it didn't work out for Tony Eason, he did QB the Patriots to a Super Bowl, but he wasn't the major reason they got there. His career was relatively short not because of injury, but because he didn't really have all of the tools to play QB in the NFL.

I didn't really notice Jim Kelly until he played in the USFL. He was a fine college player, but his play against the next level of competition proved how good he could be. His numbers in the rival league were gaudy, playing in the pass happy "run and shoot" offense. He turned into a great NFL QB, leading the Buffalo Bills to 4 consecutive Super Bowls.

Todd Blackledge and Ken O'Brien had nice careers. O'Brien led the Jets to the playoffs numerous times. Blackledge had a couple of good seasons with the Chiefs. Both are evidence of how hard it is to evaluate talent. A first round QB should be a guy who makes a big difference on your team. While both had their moments, in the final analysis neither was worthy of a first round selection.

The final QB taken in the first round in 1983 was Dan Marino. I saw Marino play a number of times at Pitt. They ran a pro style offense, and Marino was quite effective in it. Having seen the other 5 QB's play, the best thing I had to say about Marino going into the draft was that he'd be the first to be ready to play. His skills just weren't that remarkable, average in most areas. Playing in the offense he did in college, it seemed obvious that he'd be able to handle the NFL. If I had made a prediction at the time, I would have said that Marino would have the type of career Ken O'Brien had.

Marino went on to be the most prolific passer in NFL history. In his second season, he set the record for single season passing yardage and TD passes (broken by Peyton manning this year - nearly 20 years later). While he only played in one Super Bowl, he still had a stellar career and every Sunday up to his last was considered one of the most dangerous players in the league. The guy who could beat you all by himself. Today, Marino finds himself in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

In my analysis of that years players, I was right on Elway, completely wrong on Marino. Marino is in the Hall. The QB position at the pro level is so much more than physical skills. I can complain about the arm strength of Jets QB Chad Pennington all day long, in the end, he's proven himself to be a winner in the league. Enormous skills and physical talent don't assure anything. Sometimes that big, strong armed quarterback ends up being John Elway, sometimes he ends up being Jeff George. It's difficult to tell.

Raiders fans will tell you that the geatest left handed QB of all time was Ken Stabler. He was great, I saw him dismantle the Broncos enough times to realize that. Now I've got ammunition against that argument. Steve Young, great great grandson of Brigham Young, is now the only leftie quarterback of the modern era in the Hall of Fame. Young's years at Brigham Young University (I wonder how he ever got accepted there,,,,) were stellar. He put up big numbers on a team that liked to throw the ball and won a lot of games.

One could argue, however, that every year he got to play against Air Force and UTEP. BYU's competition wasn't the greatest. Two BYU QB's before him had fine college careers. Jim McMahon won a Super Bowl with the Chicago Bears and had a really nice if injury plagued career. Robbie Bosco sat on the bench for two years in Green Bay. So great BYU QB's had a spotty past. And in the beginning it began to look as if his career would be more like Bosco's than McMahon's. After playing in the USFL, Young ended up being ineffective on some horrible Tampa Bay teams. A trade to San Fransciso left him nailed to the bench behind Hall of Fame signal caller Joe Montana.

When a Montana injury finally gave Young the opportunity to play, he made the most of it. No one in the Bay area ever forgot about Montana, but Young kept the Niners in the playoffs, kept them winning Super Bowls. Now Steve Young joins Montana in the Hall of Fame as well as Marino.

Two players I had my reservations about are going into the Hall this year. Just goes to show how difficult it can be to evaluate talent.

So be careful with my Super Bowl predictions.......

BOJ

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